CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-06-06T14:11:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-06T14:11Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46690/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a southeast partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery, and is seen to the east in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and M1.8 flare from Active Region 14461 (S22E24) starting around 2025-06-06T13:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304, and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible over the southeast limb in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery, and a large EUV wave and dimming is observed surrounding the eruption site in SDO AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 195/284 imagery. Additionally, post eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 171/105 imagery starting around 2026-06-06T15:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-09T09:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-08T08:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:  2026-06-06T16:29Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1450
Longitude (deg): 25E
Latitude (deg): 11S
Half-angular width (deg): 42

Notes: Mid-point of a number of analysis by MOSWOC team
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 52.63 hour(s)
Difference: 25.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-06-07T05:15Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy